SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN IL...SOUTHEAST WI...EXTREME NORTHERN IN...AND MOST OF LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of Great Lakes region Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes... Midlevel west-northwesterly flow will increase across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across Ontario. A weakening cold front will move southeastward across the region into Saturday night. Early-day convection may complicate the surface pattern ahead of the front across parts of WI/MI, but with rich low-level moisture in place, moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon in areas where substantial heating occurs. Uncertainty remains rather high regarding the location and coverage of thunderstorm redevelopment during the afternoon/evening, due to the uncertain impact of morning convection (especially across MI), and general lack of large-scale ascent across the region in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. However, development of at least widely scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms appears possible along or perhaps ahead of the front by late afternoon. A mixture of clusters and semi-discrete cells appears to be the most likely scenario. At this time, the primary hazard appears to be damaging wind, though depending on how the convective mode evolves, some hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two will also be possible. ...Northern Arizona... Another day of widespread convection is expected across Arizona on Saturday, as rich monsoonal moisture remains in place and a weak upper-level low continues drifting westward across the region. Some enhancement to deep-layer shear is expected across northern AZ, to the north and west of the upper low track, and a few organized cells/clusters will be possible during the afternoon and evening if sufficient destabilization can occur. Localized hail and severe wind gusts should be the primary threats. ..Dean.. 07/23/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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