SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of Great Lakes/Midwest region this afternoon and evening. ...Great Lakes/Midwest Region... Northwesterly flow will strengthen across the Great Lakes region later today as a notable mid-level short-wave trough digs southeast across MN to near Lake Michigan by 25/00z. Scattered convection is expected to develop ahead of this feature, spreading from WI across lower MI into upstate NY by the end of the period. Early this morning, several pockets of convection have progressed across southern ND/SD into southwestern MN. This activity should propagate into WI by sunrise, possibly in the form of an MCS. A larger complex of storms should disrupt the air mass over much of WI before remnants spread into the U.P. and northern lower MI by noon. It's not entirely clear how severe this early-day activity will be, but daytime heating ahead of the front will contribute to substantial destabilization/buoyancy across southern lower MI-northern IL-southern IA-northern MO by peak heating. While the short-wave trough will primarily affect the immediate Great Lakes region, favorable thermodynamic environment and a convergent wind shift should result in late-afternoon thunderstorms along the boundary trailing across the Midwest region. Forecast soundings suggest some supercell potential ahead of the short wave, and discrete storms, at least early in the convective cycle, should be noted along the wind shift across northern IL. Damaging winds and hail are expected to be the primary severe risks as this activity should evolve into line segments/clusters along the advancing frontal zone. ...Northern AZ... Center of upper cyclone has drifted northwest into NM at 0530z. This low will move west later today and should migrate toward the lower CO River Valley by the end of the period. Most favorable shear/buoyancy will extend across northern AZ with this system and isolated hail/wind could be noted with the strongest storms, primarily during the afternoon/evening. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 07/24/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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