SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest and Intermountain West as well as over much of the Southeast,Lower Mississippi Valley, and Northeast. However, severe thunderstorms threat is currently expected to be low. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will continue to persist over much of the western U.S. into the Plains on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a weak upper trough will remain from the Northeast southwestward to the Lower MS Valley vicinity. A shortwave trough embedded in this larger-scale trough will develop south and east from the Great Lakes into New England and the Mid-Atlantic starting Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. A surface cold front related to this shortwave trough will develop southward across the Great Lakes region into the Northeast during the afternoon and overnight period. ...New York vicinity... Ahead of the surface cold front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place across NY and much of New England, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s forecast. MLCAPE as high as 1000-1500 J/kg will be possible as temperatures warm into the 80s. While mid/upper flow will increase some as the upper trough begins to develop eastward during the afternoon, effective shear magnitudes are expected to remain modest, around 20-25 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the front, but modest vertical shear and generally poor lapse rates will limit longevity of any more intense/organized updrafts. While a few strong gusts may occur, overall severe potential appears too limited at this time to include probabilities. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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