SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN...AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging gusts will be possible for a few more hours over southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota. Isolated wind damage may occur the remainder of the afternoon across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. ...ND/MN/WI... The Marginal risk has been trimmed and re-oriented along and just ahead of an ongoing cluster of storms which has been producing isolated strong to damaging wind gusts and hail this afternoon. Weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates will continue to limit a greater, more widespread severe threat. Nevertheless, sporadic damaging gusts and hail could continue downstream of this activity for another few hours. ...TX/LA/MS... The Marginal risk has been removed from MS and trimmed across parts of TX and LA. Numerous thunderstorms have developed over parts of southern LA into MS. This activity has been unorganized and is expected to remain so through the remainder of the afternoon/early evening. Further west into southeast TX/southwest LA, vertical shear remains weak. However, there is a relatively greater chance that isolated severe thunderstorms could develop and produce sporadic damaging gusts in the vicinity of a sea breeze front and along an outflow boundary draped across the region. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021/ ...ND/MN/WI... A broad upper ridge is present today over most of the western states, with upper troughs affecting the Great Lakes and New England, and the Pacific northwest states. One shortwave trough is currently sagging southward into northern MN. A large complex of thunderstorms is associated with this feature. Model guidance is not handling this activity very well, but radar trends suggest the linear MCS is relatively well-organized and may persist for at least a few more hours. Gusty and locally damaging winds may occur as the storms approach the western shores of Lake Superior this afternoon. Other more isolated strong storms may develop along the western flank of the MCS over northern/central MN and eastern ND. Organized severe storms are not anticipated in these areas today. ...TX/LA/MS... A weakly organized but persistent area of thunderstorms extends from east TX into parts of northern LA and central MS. The air mass south of these storms is very moist and potentially unstable with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s and mostly clear skies. Weak west-northwesterly steering flow will allow storms to develop into this unstable air, posing a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells through the afternoon. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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