SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND VICINITY...AND FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging gusts will be possible from mid afternoon into this evening from eastern North Dakota across northern Minnesota, and isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon across southeast Texas. ...ND/MN/WI... A broad upper ridge is present today over most of the western states, with upper troughs affecting the Great Lakes and New England, and the Pacific northwest states. One shortwave trough is currently sagging southward into northern MN. A large complex of thunderstorms is associated with this feature. Model guidance is not handling this activity very well, but radar trends suggest the linear MCS is relatively well-organized and may persist for at least a few more hours. Gusty and locally damaging winds may occur as the storms approach the western shores of Lake Superior this afternoon. Other more isolated strong storms may develop along the western flank of the MCS over northern/central MN and eastern ND. Organized severe storms are not anticipated in these areas today. ...TX/LA/MS... A weakly organized but persistent area of thunderstorms extends from east TX into parts of northern LA and central MS. The air mass south of these storms is very moist and potentially unstable with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s and mostly clear skies. Weak west-northwesterly steering flow will allow storms to develop into this unstable air, posing a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells through the afternoon. ..Hart/Wendt.. 07/19/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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