SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... The main severe threat area today is over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States this afternoon and evening, with thunderstorm damaging winds the primary concern. ...South Texas... An MCV has continued to track southeastward today out of western/central Texas. Temperatures in parts of south Texas have reached the low 80s. This very moist airmass (with low 70s F dewpoints) supports 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. A portion of the slow moving convection has become better organized, particularly near a subtle outflow boundary. The broad circulation in McMullen County would pose the greatest short-term threat for strong/damaging winds, but other convection to the southwest may also produce isolated wet microbursts as it propagates east-southeastward. A 5%/Marginal risk for wind has been added. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments have been made to the general thunder areas. ..Wendt.. 06/03/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021/ ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... An upper-level trough over the Lower Ohio Valley late this morning will continue northeastward with strengthening southwesterly winds aloft and the onset of height falls along the Eastern Seaboard this afternoon. While multicells capable of localized wind damage will be possible across a broad portion of the East either side of the Appalachians, the most severe-storm favorable combination of vertical shear and instability will likely materialize this afternoon through early evening along the Virginia Blue Ridge vicinity to the Delmarva and southeast Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey, where organized/sustained multicells and some transient supercells can be expected. Isolated damaging winds are expected to be the most common severe risk, but strengthening low-level shear/SRH and a moist environment could support the possibility of a tornado or two across the region. ...Northern Intermountain West... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop this afternoon/early evening from central/eastern Oregon into northern Idaho/western Montana, with development favoring areas near the front across Oregon and other higher terrain. This will be in conjunction with the leading edge of weak height falls and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft. One or two clusters of high-based convection may evolve from this activity and move swiftly northeastward. Given a well-mixed sub-cloud layer, strong to locally severe wind gusts are a possibility aside from hail. Some thunderstorm-wind potential may reach the High Plains of northwest/north-central Montana tonight before storm intensity weakens overnight. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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