SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... CORRECTED FOR TEXT ...SUMMARY... The main severe threat area today is over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States this afternoon and evening, with thunderstorm damaging winds the primary concern. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... An upper-level trough over the Lower Ohio Valley late this morning will continue northeastward with strengthening southwesterly winds aloft and the onset of height falls along the Eastern Seaboard this afternoon. While multicells capable of localized wind damage will be possible across a broad portion of the East either side of the Appalachians, the most severe-storm favorable combination of vertical shear and instability will likely materialize this afternoon through early evening along the Virginia Blue Ridge vicinity to the Delmarva and southeast Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey, where organized/sustained multicells and some transient supercells can be expected. Isolated damaging winds are expected to be the most common severe risk, but strengthening low-level shear/SRH and a moist environment could support the possibility of a tornado or two across the region. ...Northern Intermountain West... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop this afternoon/early evening from central/eastern Oregon into northern Idaho/western Montana, with development favoring areas near the front across Oregon and other higher terrain. This will be in conjunction with the leading edge of weak height falls and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft. One or two clusters of high-based convection may evolve from this activity and move swiftly northeastward. Given a well-mixed sub-cloud layer, strong to locally severe wind gusts are a possibility aside from hail. Some thunderstorm-wind potential may reach the High Plains of northwest/north-central Montana tonight before storm intensity weakens overnight. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/03/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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