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Tuesday, June 1, 2021

SPC Jun 1, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible from the central High Plains to portions of New Mexico and west Texas. Isolated damaging gusts may also occur from east Texas and northern Louisiana into Arkansas. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 0834, weakly organized storms will develop along the higher terrain of central CO into north-central NM. Some of these storms will move out onto the plains and a few may be strong enough to produce marginally severe hail and strong/damaging wind gusts. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue from southern AR across much of LA and into far southeast TX. Most updrafts thus far have been relatively weak and transient, likely owing to weak vertical shear across the region. A few stronger updrafts may still occur, particularly as a result of storm mergers, and isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows a weak but broad upper trough over much of the central US. Several days of convection has slowly eroded the reservoir of large CAPE over west/central TX, with only pockets of moderate instability likely to develop later today from southeast NM southeastward into the Big Bend area of TX. This will result in the develop of a few strong storms this afternoon and evening, but organized severe storms appear unlikely. Farther north over eastern CO and northeast NM, scattered thunderstorms will move off the higher terrain this afternoon, but limited low-level moisture should keep the severe threat isolated in this region as well. ...Arklatex Region... A weak shortwave trough is moving across TX toward the Arklatex region. Considerable high/mid clouds persist ahead of this feature, limiting daytime heating/destabilization. However, rich low level moisture and modest large scale ascent will result in rather widespread thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across east TX, much of LA, southern AR. Forecast soundings in this area show poor midlevel lapse rates and weak low-level shear. This suggests that any intense cells will be relatively short-lived and disorganized. Nevertheless, there is a chance of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cores. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov