SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible from the central High Plains to portions of New Mexico and west Texas. Isolated damaging gusts may also occur from east Texas and northern Louisiana into Arkansas. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows a weak but broad upper trough over much of the central US. Several days of convection has slowly eroded the reservoir of large CAPE over west/central TX, with only pockets of moderate instability likely to develop later today from southeast NM southeastward into the Big Bend area of TX. This will result in the develop of a few strong storms this afternoon and evening, but organized severe storms appear unlikely. Farther north over eastern CO and northeast NM, scattered thunderstorms will move off the higher terrain this afternoon, but limited low-level moisture should keep the severe threat isolated in this region as well. ...Arklatex Region... A weak shortwave trough is moving across TX toward the Arklatex region. Considerable high/mid clouds persist ahead of this feature, limiting daytime heating/destabilization. However, rich low level moisture and modest large scale ascent will result in rather widespread thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across east TX, much of LA, southern AR. Forecast soundings in this area show poor midlevel lapse rates and weak low-level shear. This suggests that any intense cells will be relatively short-lived and disorganized. Nevertheless, there is a chance of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cores. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/01/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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