SPC May 9, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all appear possible. Other more isolated strong/severe storms may occur across the southern High Plains. ...

Central TX to middle TN through early tonight... A strong late season cold front is moving southeastward across OK/north TX, while outflow from overnight convection is sagging southward across northern AR. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates is in place atop upper 60s to lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints from TX into AR/LA ahead of the cold front, and this environment will spread some toward the Mid-South today. Surface-based thunderstorm development is anticipated by early afternoon along the front and remnant outflow from western TN across northwestern MS into southern AR, and storms will develop west-southwestward into TX along the cold front through mid-late afternoon as surface heating and low-level ascent along the boundary weaken convective inhibition. MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg is expected ahead of the cold front to the west of the MS River this afternoon. 

Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells and organized storm clusters capable of producing isolated very large hail and damaging winds, though weakening low-level shear through the day will tend to limit the tornado threat with westward extent. Farther east toward northwest MS and TN, low-level shear and warm advection will remain stronger later into the afternoon, within the southwestern extent of the low-level jet related to the surface cyclone and midlevel trough crossing the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Clouds and outflow with early convection will modulate the northeast extent of the primary severe threat into western/middle TN and northwestern MS. ...

Northeast NM and vicinity this afternoon/evening... Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along the east edge of the higher terrain by mid afternoon in a post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Low-level moisture will be limited, but surface heating of the post-frontal air mass, in combination with sufficiently cool midlevel temperatures, will result in weak surface-based buoyancy. There will be sufficient buoyancy and vertical shear for a couple of high-based, low-topped storms with some supercell structure, and an attendant threat for isolated strong/damaging gusts and marginally severe hail (closer to the higher terrain). ..Thompson/Moore.. 05/09/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/RzPTDR

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