SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado are the severe threats expected. ...01z Update... Considerable amount of thunderstorm activity has evolved ahead of the primary frontal zone from east-central TX-northern LA-northern MS-middle TN. Convective overturning has stabilized much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the TN Valley with the primary corridor of modest instability remaining from northwest MS into south-central TX where MLCAPE is near 4000 J/kg. Over the last few hours a more significant cluster of storms has gradually organized over southeast TX into west-central LA where a bow-type structure is moving into Vernon Parish LA.
A weak MCV may be evolving along the northern tip of this bow segment and an expanding precipitation shield could aid forward propagation toward southern LA later this evening. With ample buoyancy observed ahead of this activity, and 30kt low-level inflow observed into this complex, expanding severe probabilities across lower latitudes appears reasonable. Damaging winds and hail are the primary risks, though a tornado can not be ruled out. ..Darrow.. 05/10/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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