SPC May 9, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur Monday across parts of south-central Texas. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, as well as southern Virginia into the Carolinas. ...

Central/East/South TX...Arklatex... Expectation is for a weakening cold front to extend from the Edwards Plateau through southeast TX early Monday morning. Some isolated showers will likely be ongoing, particularly across central and east TX, but any thunderstorms associated with Sunday night's activity are forecast to be across the Lower MS Valley. Any additional southward progress of the front throughout the day is expected to be minimal, with at least modest low-level moisture beginning to return northward Monday afternoon. Southerly/southwesterly low-level flow across this frontal zone is not expected to be particularly strong, but persistent isentropic ascent may contribute isolated thunderstorms throughout the day across north-central/northeast TX into the Arklatex. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate mid-level flow will contribute to an environment that supports hail with the strongest storms. This hail threat will persist through the evening and overnight as the low-level flow gradually strengthens. Guidance is in good agreement that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across northern Mexico and into the TX Hill Country late Monday night/early Tuesday. As ascent attendant to this shortwave spreads eastward, it should augment ongoing convergence along the front as well as strengthen the southwesterly low-level flow to support additional thunderstorm development across the Edwards Plateau/TX Hill Country. Forecast hodographs show modest low-level veering transitioning to long and straight character in the mid-levels. This type of wind field coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates suggests supercells capable of large to isolated very large hail. Strong water-loaded downbursts and a tornado or two are also possible. ...

Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... Showers and thunderstorms, remnant from activity Sunday night/early Monday morning, will likely be ongoing from southern LA into the central Gulf Coast. A damaging wind gust or two could occur with these storms. A cold front is expected to gradually shift southward/southeastward throughout the day, with some additional thunderstorm development possible along this front. Much of the region will be south of the stronger westerly flow aloft, but amply low-level moisture and modest buoyancy could still result in updrafts strong enough to produce water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...

Southern Virginia into the Carolinas... Modest low-level moisture will be in place ahead of a cold front gradually moving southward across southern VA And the Carolinas on Monday. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will persist throughout the day, with some late afternoon/early evening strengthening on this flow possible as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the region. Ascent attendant to this shortwave will augment the lift along the front, helping to foster thunderstorm development once the air mass destabilizes. Instability will be modest, but aforementioned strong mid-level flow should still result in robust updrafts. A cluster/bowing line segment storm mode is anticipated, with damaging wind gusts as the main severe threat. ..Mosier.. 05/09/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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