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Monday, May 31, 2021

SPC May 31, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of a hail and wind risk are possible over eastern New Mexico and the Texas portion of the Rio Grande Valley. Isolated damaging gusts may also occur from northeast Texas into Arkansas on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Little change in the upper flow field is expected across the U.S. on Tuesday, with only slow eastward progression of the main longer-wavelength features -- specifically a positively tilted trough extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains. At the surface, a fairly weak/nondescript pattern will prevail across a majority of the country, with high pressure predominant. A weak surface low/front moving across Texas -- associated with small-scale troughing moving through the broader cyclonic flow aloft -- will focus widespread storms and local severe potential. ...Eastern New Mexico and West Texas/the Rio Grande Valley... Moist easterly flow will continue Tuesday across West Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, weak lee troughing is expected to evolve during the afternoon over the High Plains of eastern New Mexico, as the upper trough shifts slowly east of the area, and thus a bit more of a northwesterly/downslope component of the flow field aloft evolving with time. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing/lingering at the start of the period over parts of South Texas, particularly in the vicinity of the Lower Rio Grande Valley, where some gusty/damaging wind potential may continue early in the period. Later, upslope flow into the higher terrain of West Texas and also parts of northern Mexico, along with weak ascent/convergence near the New Mexico lee trough, should result in isolated afternoon storm development, as the airmass destabilizes diurnally. With enhanced westerly flow aloft atop low-level easterlies, particularly across West Texas, a few storms will likely become organized/supercellular, posing a risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. At this time, coverage of convection appears likely to remain limited, and thus will maintain only 5%/MRGL risk across the region. ...Arklatex region and vicinity... Showers and scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of East Texas and the Arklatex region at the start of the period, ahead of a very weak surface low/cold front drifting eastward across the southern Plains. While this precipitation and cloud cover may negatively affect afternoon heating/destabilization potential in some areas, pockets of greater CAPE development will likely support an afternoon increase in coverage/intensity of storms near and ahead of the surface system. While deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur with a couple of the stronger storms into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 05/31/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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