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Monday, May 31, 2021

SPC May 31, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A threat for very large hail and a few tornadoes should be focused across the Permian Basin and Pecos Valley vicinity of southeast New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. ...West TX/southeast NM... Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over AZ, with a band of moderately strong midlevel flow extending from northern Mexico into southwest TX. At the surface, rich low-level moisture is in place across most of TX - extending as far west as the Pecos Valley. Widespread convection has been occurring this morning across parts of eastern NM and the TX South Plains, reinforcing an outflow boundary from extreme southeast NM to near Abilene. This will likely be the northern edge of more robust convective development this afternoon. Present indications are that intense storms will form along the aforementioned outflow boundary and southward over the higher terrain of southwest TX. Sufficient deep shear will support discrete supercells capable of very large hail. Low level flow is not particularly strong, but backed near-surface winds, degree of instability, and discrete supercell storm-mode may be sufficient for a few tornadoes as well. Activity will persist in the evening and spread eastward across the SLGT risk area. ...North Central TX... Persistent precipitation over north TX will help to maintain an outflow boundary from roughly Abilene to north of the DFW area. Broken clouds to the south of the boundary will lead to moderate instability and the development of afternoon thunderstorms. CAPE/shear parameters are not strong in this region, but sufficient flow aloft could result in a few bowing structures or weak supercells capable of gusty winds or hail. ...Central NM into south-central CO... Southeasterly low-level winds and multiple days of afternoon convection have resulted in considerable low-level moisture across the higher terrain of central NM into south-central CO. Strong heating is occurring over this region, which will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show ample CAPE, with steep lapse rates and relatively cool temperatures aloft. This may result in a few strong storms capable of hail this afternoon. ...WI/Western Upper MI... An upper shortwave trough is passing across the western Great Lakes region today, with an associated cold front expected to sag across parts of WI and western Upper MI. Cool temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates, coupled with strong daytime heating and convergence along the front will aid in the development of a scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Winds through the low/mid troposphere are relatively weak, suggesting limited organization of storms. Nevertheless, a few of the stronger cores may produce gusty winds and hail. ...Southwest FL... A few strong thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon along the sea-breeze over southwest FL. The strongest cells may produce gusty winds and hail for a few hours. Please refer to Mesoscale Discussion #822 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/31/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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