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Monday, May 31, 2021

SPC May 31, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A threat for very large hail and a few tornadoes should be focused across the Permian Basin and Pecos Valley vicinity of southeast New Mexico and west Texas through about sunset. ...Southeast NM through west/north TX to far southern OK... Primary severe potential will generally focus along a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone, which will be shunted farther south across west TX tonight as surface ridging builds in the lee of the southern Rockies. A leading MCV across southwest OK should drift east with some spatial decay this morning of its broad stratiform and convective precip shield that extends from central OK to the TX Big Country. Enhanced low-level SRH attendant to the MCV poses concern for a tornado risk, conditioned on adequate destabilization occurring in the Red River vicinity this afternoon. Have added a low probability tornado area to account for this possibility. Farther west, persistent isentropic ascent and upslope flow will support increased thunderstorm development through midday across the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos. With the belt of strongest mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies overlapping the corridor of greatest instability, several supercells appear likely through the afternoon. Very large hail and a few tornadoes should be the primary hazards. With time, amalgamating cells might grow upscale into a modest forward-propagating MCS near or south of the baroclinic zone. This may result in a threat for strong to isolated severe wind gusts spreading towards the Concho Valley and western Edwards Plateau in the evening, before weakening later tonight. ...Central WI to western Upper MI... A shortwave trough over the MN Arrowhead will shift across the Upper Great Lakes today. Attendant cold core atop a warming boundary layer will support steep tropospheric lapse rates for low-topped convection. Modest deep-layer shear and a lack of appreciable low-level convergence will be limiting factors to a more intense and organized severe episode. The setup should favor a threat for isolated marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Southwest FL Coast... Scattered afternoon thunderstorm development is expected along the Gulf Coast sea breeze south of Tampa Bay where low-level convergence should be maximized. On the backside of a minor mid-level impulse drifting along and eventually off the southeast FL coast, weak mid-level northerlies should support effective shear of 15-20 kt. This may be adequate to yield loosely organized updrafts capable of producing isolated marginally severe hail and damaging winds. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/31/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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