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Saturday, May 29, 2021

SPC May 29, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered storms capable of producing large hail, brief tornadoes, and locally severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Colorado, eastern New Mexico and the western Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments, the major change with this outlook update has been to remove the MRGL risk from Deep South Texas, as storms have moved eastward into the Gulf/southward into northeastern Mexico. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with storms now developing in both remaining severe risk areas -- over the higher terrain of southern Wyoming/the Colorado Front Range, and southward across northern New Mexico, and also across southeastern Virginia and portions of the Carolinas along and ahead of the cold front. Locally gusty winds capable of producing minor damage remain possible with a couple of the stronger Carolinas/Virginia storms, while large hail and damaging winds are expected locally over the High Plains area, along with potential for a tornado or two this afternoon and evening. ..Goss.. 05/29/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021/ ...High Plains... Morning visible satellite imagery shows clear skies and strong heating occurring over most of the high plains of CO/NM. Dewpoints are in the 40s to lower 50s, and forecast soundings for this afternoon show MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg across the region, along with a weakening cap. Model guidance is consistent with the development of scattered thunderstorms over the foothills of CO/NM, as well as initiation along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. Low level shear is relatively weak over most areas, except parts of southeast CO where backed low-level flow may result in a localized tornado threat. Otherwise, organized multicell and occasional supercell storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening. ...VA/NC... A surface cold front is sagging southward across southern VA toward northern NC. A few thunderstorms have begun to form in the warm sector over far southeast VA and northeast NC, where pockets of heating and dewpoints near 70F are yielding MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear is not particularly strong in this area, but moderately strong southwesterly winds above the surface will promote gusty/damaging winds in the most intense cells this afternoon. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if a storm can track along and interact with the frontal boundary. ...South TX... A long-lived MCS with occasional bowing segments is moving southeastward across deep south TX. A risk of locally damaging wind gusts will persist for another 1-2 hours before storms move offshore. Please refer to MCD #799 for further details. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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