SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening, east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains into adjacent portions of the high plains. ...01Z Outlook Update... Seasonably warm air is largely confined to the Southwest, mainly across the southern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau into the southern Rockies. But, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air to the immediately lee of the southern Rockies, on the eastern periphery of this air mass, daytime heating was sufficient to contribute to moderate mixed-layer CAPE across the higher plains, where east-southeasterly flow into lee surface troughing is maintaining a relatively moist boundary-layer. A high-level (around 300-250 mb) westerly jet emanating from the subtropical Pacific is contributing to moderate to strong deep-layer shear across and east of the southern Rockies, but westerly deep-layer ambient mean wind fields are otherwise generally weak (10-20 kt). This is resulting in slow storm motions off the higher terrain and, coupled with the onset of boundary-layer cooling and a generally cooler/more stable environment into the Great Plains, storm intensities probably will wane before making much progress into the Great Plains. A perturbation emerging from weak, larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing into California and Baja might still contribute to increasing and consolidating convection northeast and east of the Raton Mesa vicinity later this evening, aided by modest southerly low-level jet strengthening. If this occurs, the environment might still be conducive to the evolution of an organized cluster with the risk to produce strong wind gusts before weakening overnight. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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