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Saturday, May 29, 2021

SPC May 29, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail, brief tornadoes, and isolated severe wind gusts are possible after about 2 PM MDT across the south-central High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Slowly intensifying storm development is expected during the early to mid-afternoon focused on the Palmer Divide vicinity along a surface trough, the Raton Mesa vicinity near a diurnally deepening surface cyclone, and in a upslope flow regime to the Sacramento Mountains. Low-amplitude upper-level ridging and modest-strength westerlies suggest both storm movement and updraft organization should be initially subdued. But the presence of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon amid steep mid-level lapse rates will support a risk for a few supercells with a primary threat of large hail. Brief hybrid landspout-supercell tornadoes are possible along the surface trough and with any slow-moving supercell in southeast CO. Longer-duration supercells should be maintained in the Raton Mesa vicinity aided by strengthening of the low-level jet this evening. This renders concern for a continued brief tornado risk in this region through about 02Z. Otherwise, slow-moving clusters with regenerative upshear convection should persist through most of tonight, particularly focused in the Raton Mesa vicinity. While an isolated severe wind threat is apparent, a greater risk for severe wind gusts should be curtailed by substantial MLCIN across much of western KS and the Panhandles. ...Carolinas and far southeast VA... Afternoon thunderstorm development will be focused along a convergent southward-moving surface cold front. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, pockets of stronger boundary-layer heating should boost MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. While a transient supercell may develop immediately along the portion of the frontal zone near the southeast VA/northeast NC border, multicells capable of isolated wind damage should be the most common mode/threat through early evening. ...Deep South TX... A decaying MCS should spread across the rest of Deep South TX through midday, and will likely continue to weaken overall. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and abundant buoyancy sampled in the 12Z Brownsville sounding suggest a brief flare-up of isolated severe hail and wind is still possible until the MCS fully decays. ...Southeast TX... On the backside of a drifting MCV near the mouth of the Sabine River, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible along a weakly convergent surface boundary. Modest deep-layer shear within a west-northwest flow regime may be adequate for a few cells producing small hail and locally gusty winds. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/29/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov