SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico into southwest and west Texas. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Southern High Plains... Weakening showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning within a zone of weakening warm air advection across the northern part of the southern High Plains. The outflow boundary from this early day convection in addition the dryline and elevated terrain, will serve as favored areas for renewed thunderstorm development later in the day. As a mid- to upper-level trough initially over southern CA Sunday morning moves east into the Sonoran Desert, a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly 500 mb flow (35-40 kt) will nose eastward across northern Mexico into southern NM and southwest TX by the early evening. Moist upslope flow will maintain a seasonably moist airmass in the Permian Basin featuring 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will erode convective inhibition and convective initiation is forecast mainly during the 21-23 UTC period. Strong instability from southwest TX into eastern NM (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow in the low to mid levels beneath 70 kt west-southwesterly 250 mb flow, will strongly favoring supercells initially. Hail will be the primary risk with the stronger discrete supercells with a tornado possible during a few hours during the early evening when temperature/dewpoint spreads lessen. Upscale growth into one or more intense clusters/bands of storms is expected during the evening from eastern NM into west TX. This activity may persist into the late evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms are possible across the FL Peninsula, eastern NC, and over the central High Plains. ..Smith.. 05/29/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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