SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be possible across the central and southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated/weakening upper-level low over the western U.S. will lift northeast late Saturday. An expansive upper-level ridge will remain across much of the eastern U.S., and a surface frontal boundary will extend from northern MN southwest to northern CO by late afternoon. ...Western NE south to eastern NM/West TX... Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon across the higher terrain of central CO/NM as modest height falls and upslope low-level flow contribute to large-scale lift. Despite substantial cloud cover, sufficient heating of surface dew points in the 50s should result in MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range across eastern CO, and locally higher over eastern NM. Southerly mid-level flow averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for storm organization, with supercells likely initially, posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm coverage should increase with time as warm advection increases via a strengthening low-level jet, with line segments likely the dominant storm mode during the evening with a continued risk for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northern MN/southeast ND/eastern SD... Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front during the afternoon with a risk for severe hail and perhaps strong wind gusts. The presence of lower-mid 60s surface dew points and 30-35 kts of southwesterly mid-level flow should be sufficient for storm organization, with the overall severe risk diminishing during the evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 05/22/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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