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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, May 22, 2021

SPC May 22, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe hail and wind along with a few tornadoes are possible across the central and southern High Plains this afternoon through about dusk. ...Central and southern High Plains... Within a meridional mid to upper-level flow regime downstream of an amplified trough over the West, the western extent of mid 50s to low 60s surface dew points have reached the High Plains of eastern CO/NM. While some eastward mixing will occur, multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms are expected to begin during the early afternoon. Low-level hodographs initially may remain modest, but should enlarge with time by late afternoon. A mixed mode of supercells evolving into broader clusters is anticipated, particularly in two regimes focused on eastern NM and separately in northeast CO to western NE. Moderate buoyancy should develop within confined corridors just ahead of this convection which should support potential for a few tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind. ...Central TX... An MCV located just east of San Antonio should gradually advance northwest across central TX through this afternoon. Low-topped showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to peak in coverage from late morning through afternoon. A belt of enhanced 0-1 km shear within the eastern quadrant of the MCV coupled with limited boundary-layer heating may be sufficient for the threat of brief/weak tornadoes. ...Northern MN... Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon to early evening along the trailing portion of a modest warm conveyor belt along/just ahead of a slow-moving cold front. The presence of an upstream mid-level ridge over the Dakotas within a pronounced gradient of mid-level westerlies suggest the corridor of severe potential should remain spatially confined. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/22/2021 Read more LIVE: