SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected across northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle tonight. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary risks. Upper-level low pressure centered over NV early this evening remains nearly stationary, with 40-50 kt southwesterly mid-level flow across the central/southern High Plains. Isolated strong/occasionally severe thunderstorms were in progress in the vicinity of a slow-moving front across the NE Panhandle, and southward along a surface trough/dryline extending southward into eastern NM. Refer to MCD 697 for the latest short-term details for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192. Weak/pockets of moderate surface-based instability and convergence in the vicinity of the front/surface trough will contribute to a continued risk for isolated severe storms tonight across the central/southern High Plains with large hail and damaging gusts the primary hazards. Across southeast TX/southwest LA, some increase in showers/thunderstorms is possible late tonight as an area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico moves inland. RAP forecast soundings towards 08-12z suggest weak instability along with curved low-level hodographs favorable for rotation and some risk for a tornado. Removed Marginal Risks across the upper Midwest and over portions of eastern ID/western WY as the severe risk in these areas appears minimal the remainder of tonight. ..Bunting.. 05/22/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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