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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, May 16, 2021

SPC May 16, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...

SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are once again expected across portions of the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts are the most likely risks. Tornado probabilities have been increased to 5%/Slight Risk in parts of north-central Texas, including the DFW metro area. Earlier this afternoon, a few weak/brief circulations were noted on KFWS radar along with reported brief touchdowns with the most organized storm now in Ellis County. Current radar imagery continues to suggest some potential for this activity to continue for a few hours. TDFW and TDAL VWP data continue to show semi-enlarged low-level hodographs. A couple storms, should they organize, west/south of the metro area may see similar potential for a brief/weak tornado given some heating ahead of that activity. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged. ..Wendt.. 05/16/2021 .

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021/ ...
Central/Southern Plains... To the east of an east/southeastward-spreading upper low over the Desert Southwest, the leading edge of weak height falls will extend into the central/southern High Plains later today. In vicinity of a surface low, a front will continue southeastward across the south-central High Plains through tonight while a north/south-oriented dryline extends southward into the Trans-pecos region of west/southwest Texas. Similar to yesterday, the greatest threat of initial strong/severe development is expected late this afternoon/early evening from east-central/southeast Colorado to along the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity including western portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. It is also plausible that ample moisture/heating and convergence in vicinity of the dryline leads to at least isolated deep convective development late this afternoon across west/southwest Texas, where deep-layer shear/ample instability could support a few supercells capable of large hail. The most probable zone of severe thunderstorm development and organization into this evening will likely be across the Texas Panhandle and nearby south Plains/Low Rolling Plains. Initial multicells/supercells capable of large hail are expected. Over time, storm mergers should lead to a tendency for storm clustering/MCS development this evening with damaging wind potential also increasing. Farther east, a few transient supercells could occur this afternoon/early evening across central/northern parts of Texas into Oklahoma in association with an MCV and/or warm conveyor. ...

Nevada into northeast Colorado... As the upper trough moves into the southwest states today, a consensus of model solutions indicate an arcing band of showers and thunderstorms will develop from northeast NV into parts of UT/ID/WY/CO. Very steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of isolated hail and gusty winds for a few hours this afternoon and early evening. Read more LIVE:

NWS SPC Convective Outlook provided by

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