Central/Southern Plains... An upper trough is digging into the Desert Southwest today, with relatively weak westerly flow across the central and southern Plains states. Similar to yesterday, the greatest threat of strong/severe storms will be the activity that forms along the surface dryline from southeast CO into parts of northeast NM. Other strong storms may form farther north along a cold front over northeast CO and northwest KS. All of this activity will build eastward through the evening across the SLGT risk area. Forecast soundings throughout the risk area show relatively steep mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for a risk of hail and gusty/damaging winds in the more organized storm clusters. However, vertical shear will be weak suggesting that convective organization will be limited. Several overnight model runs suggest storms building southeastward from TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX after midnight. While this scenario is plausible, weak wind fields provide uncertainty whether storms can maintain severe wind potential late into tonight. Later outlooks will re-evaluate this area and potentially extend the SLGT risk farther eastward if warranted. ...
NV into northeast CO... As the upper trough moves into the southwest states today, a consensus of model solutions indicate an arcing band of showers and thunderstorms will develop from northeast NV into parts of UT/ID/WY/CO. Very steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of isolated hail and gusty winds for a few hours this afternoon and early evening. ..Hart/Leitman.. 05/16/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
NWS SPS Convective Outlook provided by Arlingtoncardinal.com/weather
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