SPC May 16, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible across much of Texas into parts of Oklahoma on Tuesday. A few storms may become severe with a threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... An upper low forecast to be centered somewhere near the southern Rockies at the start of the period is forecast to weaken and eject northeastward through the day Tuesday, as an upper ridge continues to build over the eastern CONUS. A weak surface low is forecast to remain in place over some portion of west TX, with multiple convectively modulated surface boundaries likely to be located somewhere over the southern/central Plains. ...

TX/OK... With multiple rounds of convection expected prior to the D3/Tuesday period across the southern/central Plains, confidence is quite low regarding the details of any severe thunderstorm threat. A cluster of convection (potentially posing some threat of hail/wind) may be ongoing at the start of the period across some portion of southwest into central/north TX. Difluent upper flow and continued low-level moisture transport will likely sustain convection through most of the day across TX into portions of OK. The greatest relative severe risk will likely evolve along the southern and western fringe of the more widespread convection, where stronger destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of a weak dryline and any outflow boundaries. Midlevel flow/deep-layer shear to the east of the ejecting upper low/trough will likely be sufficient to support some organized storm structures, with a risk of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado with the strongest convection. Given the uncertainty, a broad Marginal Risk has been included with this outlook, with the expectation that some portion of the area could eventually be upgraded (or possibly downgraded) as details become clearer. ..Dean.. 05/16/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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