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Saturday, May 15, 2021

SPC May 15, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected across the central/southern High Plains today. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...

Central High Plains... West-northwesterly flow aloft is present today across the central and northern Plains states. One shortwave trough currently over KS will track eastward into MO, with mid-level height rises and subsidence over eastern CO/western KS much of the day. This will help to suppress the development of deep convection until mid/late afternoon as temperatures rise into the 70s. Persistent easterly/upslope low-level winds will maintain near 50F dewpoints across northeast CO, yielding MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated storms are expected to develop later today over the foothills of central/northeast CO, spreading eastward and increasing in coverage during the evening. Cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates indicate that large hail will be the main threat, with some increase in potential for damaging wind gusts as the storms congeal and spread into KS. ...



Eastern NM/West TX... A surface dryline will lie across eastern NM this afternoon, with temperatures well into the 80s across the region. Forecast soundings suggest little cap along the dryline, leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Winds in the lower troposphere will be rather weak, suggesting storms will be marginally organized with multicell and transient supercell structures. Nevertheless, the strongest cells will be capable of hail and damaging winds. ...

Northern NV... Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to develop along and north of a front over central NV. The stronger cells will pose a risk of strong wind gusts. Weak CAPE values are expected to limit the overall threat/coverage of severe storms. ...

MN/WI/IA... A few thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over parts of eastern IA, southeast MN, and western WI. These storms will be widely spaced, but in an environment of cold temperatures aloft and sufficient effective shear for some updraft rotation. The strongest cells will pose a risk of hail. ..Hart/Leitman.. 05/15/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/RzjRv2


NWS SPC Convective Outlook provided by Arlingtoncardinal.com/weather

See also ...

Arlingtoncardinal.com/clouds

Arlingtoncardinal.com/radar

Arlingtoncardinal.com/wind

Arlingtoncardinal.com/rain

Arlingtoncardinal.com/snow

Arlingtoncardinal.com/sun

Arlingtoncardinal.com/moon

Arlingtoncardinal.com/nightsky

Arlingtoncardinal.com/temperatures