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Saturday, May 15, 2021

SPC May 15, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the central/southern High Plains this afternoon/evening. Hail and wind are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Most of the forecast remains on track. Relatively minor changes were made based on observational trends and are described below. ...

IA/MN... Marginal hail probabilities were adjusted farther south and west. Current satellite trends indicate the greatest potential will be in central/western Iowa as mid-level drying/subsidence is evident in southern Minnesota per water vapor imagery. ...

Southeastern KS and northern OK... Marginal hail/wind probabilities were adjusted based on the current position of the differential heating boundary. Storms may develop somewhat farther south than previously forecast. ..Wendt.. 05/15/2021 .

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021/ ...

Central High Plains... West-northwesterly flow aloft exists a broad portion of the region, with some tendency for mid-level height rises and subsidence for a time over eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Persistent easterly/upslope low-level winds will maintain near 50F dewpoints across northeast Colorado, yielding MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated storms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon across eastern Colorado, spreading eastward and increasing in coverage during the evening. Cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates indicate that large hail will be the main threat, with some increase in potential for damaging wind gusts as the storms congeal and spread into Kansas, with aid of a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. ...

Eastern New Mexico/west Texas... A surface dryline will extend north-south across far eastern New Mexico this afternoon, with temperatures well into the 80s across the region. Forecast soundings suggest little cap along the dryline, leading to scattered thunderstorm development beginning around mid-afternoon. Winds in the lower troposphere will be rather weak, suggesting storms will be marginally organized with multicell and transient supercell structures. The strongest cells will be capable of hail and damaging winds, with likely east-southeastward persistence into much of west/northwest Texas this evening. ...

Northern Nevada/northern Utah... As an upper low continues to spread southward over California and the nearby Great Basin, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop and intensify this afternoon along and north of a front across the region. Strong/isolated severe thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and some hail will be possible. ...

Upper Midwest including portions Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa... A few strong/locally severe low-topped thunderstorms may develop this afternoon. The region will be influenced by a slow-moving shortwave trough and relatively steep lapse rates, with convergence and relative potential for thunderstorm development maximized in vicinity of a weak boundary. Buoyancy may be adequate in the presence of semi-straight hodographs and 45-70 kt anvil-level northwesterly winds to support hail potential, particularly late this afternoon and early evening. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov

NWS SPC Convective Outlook information provided by Arlingtoncardinal.com/weather

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