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Saturday, May 15, 2021

SPC May 15, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible on Monday across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...

Southern and Central High Plains... A shortwave ridge will move eastward through the southern and central Plains on Monday as an upper-level trough moves across northern Mexico. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen in west Texas during the day with moisture advection continuing across much of the southern Plains. A west Texas dryline is again forecast to take shape by afternoon with convection initiating to the east of the dryline. Scattered thunderstorms should develop and move east-northeastward across the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas during the late afternoon, reaching western Oklahoma and possibly central Oklahoma during the evening. NAM forecast suggest that instability will be stronger in the southern Plains on Monday than on previous days. This is because surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F to the east of the dryline. In addition, mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across much of west Texas as the shortwave trough approaches. Forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear could reach 40 kt across the Texas Panhandle, where supercells with large hail will be possible. The models also develop a 35 to 45 kt low-level jet across northwest Texas early Monday evening. For this reason, low-level shear should become strong enough for tornadoes. The more dominant supercells could produce a tornado or two. Wind damage will also likely accompany any storm clusters that can become organized. ...


Southwest, Central and North Texas... Mid-level flow across the southern Plains will become west-southwesterly on Monday as an upper-level trough moves across northern Mexico. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s F to lower 70s F across much of southwest, central and northern Texas. In response, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Convective coverage should remain isolated during the afternoon, mainly due to a lack of large-scale ascent. If isolated thunderstorm development can take place, the strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear would support an localized severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 05/15/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov


NWS SPC Convective Outlook provided by Arlingtoncardinal.com/weather

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Arlingtoncardinal.com/clouds

Arlingtoncardinal.com/radar

Arlingtoncardinal.com/wind

Arlingtoncardinal.com/rain

Arlingtoncardinal.com/snow

Arlingtoncardinal.com/sun

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