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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, May 15, 2021

SPC May 15, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of the central and southern Plains this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the expected hazards. ...

Central/Southern Plains... High-based convection that developed east of the front range of the Rockies, from CO into NM, has migrated downstream into a region of increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. 00z soundings from DDC and AMA exhibit very steep lapse rates from the surface through the cloud-bearing layer, with modest MLCAPE in excess of 1200 J/kg. Over the last few hours, thunderstorm clusters have expanded in areal coverage over the TX Panhandle. If an MCS ultimately evolves over this portion of the southern Plains then organized severe threat may spread a bit farther downstream into portions of western OK. Otherwise, LLJ is forecast to increase from northern OK into central KS later this evening. This appears favorable for upscale growth in convection along the I-70 corridor. Ultimately this activity should begin to propagate southeast, aided by a weak short-wave trough that will track along this path during the overnight hours. ..Darrow.. 05/15/2021 Read more LIVE: