SPC May 14, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon through this evening. Very strong wind gusts and hail up to 2 inches are possible from extreme northeast Colorado into northwestern Kansas. ...

Central High Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough over the eastern states, with west-northwest flow aloft extending from the northern Rockies into the mid MS Valley. A weak frontal boundary extends from central WY into central NE. Cool temperatures aloft and pockets of daytime heating will help to initiate scattered mid-afternoon thunderstorms along the boundary across the foothills and higher terrain of central WY and northeast CO. This activity will spread east-southeastward into a progressively more moist boundary layer air mass over northeast CO and western KS with dewpoints in the 40s and MLCAPE values of 500-750 J/kg. While the limited moisture/instability environment will likely limit the coverage of storms, favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of large hail and gusty winds through the evening. Isolated very large hail and/or significant wind gusts are possible. ...

NM/TX... A surface dryline is expected to extend from southwest KS across the TX Panhandle into southwest NM this afternoon. Strong heating will occur along/west of the boundary with temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s, while dewpoints climb into the mid 40s to lower 50s to the east of the dryline. Most models suggest this combination will be sufficient to eliminate the cap for a few hours, allowing the development of isolated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions indicate multicell and occasional supercell storms are possible, capable of producing hail and damaging winds this evening. ...

SD/MN... A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop today along a weak cold front extending across western MN into eastern SD. A combination of strong winds aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates suggest that hail and gusty winds will be possible in the strongest cells. However, limited instability/moisture should preclude a more organized severe event. ..Hart/Leitman.. 05/14/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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