SPC May 10, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of southern Texas this afternoon into tonight, as well across the Carolinas today. ...

Central/south Texas... A surface front will continue to settle southward across south-central/southeast Texas through the afternoon and evening, with a moist environment near and south of the front (low 70s F surface dewpoints). Beneath a moderately strong belt of westerlies aloft, forcing for ascent/convergence should be maximized near the International border/Rio Grande at peak heating, coincident with the steepest low-level lapse rates and increasingly negligible convective inhibition. Within this strongly unstable environment near the front, storms should form and rapidly intensify by mid/late afternoon across the International border and/or into the Del Rio/southern Edwards Plateau vicinities. Forecast soundings are quite unstable with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg with adequate shear for supercells. Very large hail is possible with this activity along with damaging winds. A few storm clusters could persist and spread across the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley region into this evening with a continued severe risk. ...

Northern Texas/far southern Oklahoma to ArkLaMiss... Well to the north of the southward-advancing surface front, isolated or widely scattered thunderstorms may develop into late morning/afternoon across parts of north Texas into Oklahoma, and reach and/or redevelop across the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions into this evening and overnight. With steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate elevated buoyancy (reference 12Z observed sounding from Fort Worth-Dallas), in the presence of long/semi-straight hodographs through the cloud-bearing layer, some stronger/locally severe storms capable of hail could occur across this broad region mainly this afternoon and tonight. ...

Carolinas... Moderately strong/cyclonically curved westerlies will reside across the Carolinas and nearby Southeast with a few weak embedded disturbances influencing the region. Although cloud cover/scattered showers exist across the region early today, cloud breaks should allow for destabilization near/south of the front into this afternoon. As storms develop/increase this afternoon, upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE in the presence of 30-40 kt effective shear will support the potential for at least isolated instances of severe wind and some hail. ...

Gulf Coast from Louisiana to northern Florida/Georgia... Multiple semi-organized linear clusters exist across the region early today, including across far southern Louisiana with another cluster across the Florida Panhandle/southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia vicinity this morning. Although respective downstream environments are not overly favorable for organized severe, some potential for strong/locally severe storms will persist today with wind damage as the primary risk. ..Guyer/Goss.. 05/10/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/RzSBl5

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