Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
today or tonight.
...Southwest States including southern Arizona...
A southern-stream shortwave trough near the SoCal/northern Baja
coast will continue generally eastward along the international
border, while a more prominent upper trough amplifies a bit more
along the West Coast toward the Great Basin. Ahead of the southern
stream trough, isolated thunderstorm development will become more
probable by late morning into the afternoon across southern Arizona
as forcing for ascent overspreads a modestly moist/unstable boundary
layer.
A few stronger low-topped storms could develop/spread
north-northeastward into south-central/southeast Arizona by around
mid-afternoon. Some small hail and/or gusty winds are plausible, but
current thinking is that organized severe thunderstorm potential
will be curbed by a trend of weakening low/mid-tropospheric flow
into this afternoon (effective shear 25 kt or less), along with the
relatively cool thermal profiles and perceived limitations on
downdraft intensity. A bit later in the day, a somewhat stronger
combination of deep-layer winds and lapse rates/buoyancy could also
contribute to some stronger storm potential toward the Rio Grande
River valley of southern New Mexico and far west Texas, but overall
severe potential should remain low.
Across northern California, while lightning flash potential will
likely remain limited, some convective enhancement to the
inland-spreading precipitation may influence some stronger
near-coastal wind gusts. Additional low-topped convection is
expected as lapse rates steepen within the post-frontal environment
later today for near-coastal areas and possibly parts of the
interior valley.
..Guyer/Mead.. 11/13/2026
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