Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two
will be possible across parts of the Southeast.
...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk area to clear
behind the ongoing convection. See MCD#2444 and the previous
discussion below for more details.
..Halbert-E.. 11/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026/
...Southeast...
Moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft is present over the southeast
states today, with water vapor imagery showing a pronounced
shortwave trough over MS/AL. As this trough translates eastward
today, scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of AL/GA/SC and
east TN. Two regimes appear to pose a risk of isolated
strong/severe storms later today.
The first area is along the primary cold front over eastern AL and
western GA. Most recent CAM solutions suggest scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the front by mid-afternoon, with at
least pockets of heating occurring out ahead. A few supercells are
possible. Forecast soundings show weakening low-level winds and
some veering in areas of better heating. This may tend to reduce
the tornado risk, but the strongest cells could be capable of
locally damaging wind gusts.
Another area of concern will stretch from central/northeast GA into
upstate SC later today. Low-level winds will remain backed and
moderately strong in this area, leading to favorable shear profiles
for a tornado or two in the more persistent storms.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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