Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado will be possible across parts of the Southeast into the
southern Appalachians.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a mature cyclone centered over
the western MN/IA border vicinity. A shortwave trough is moving over
the Ozarks within the base of this cyclone. This shortwave is
forecast to pivot quickly northeastward then northward through the
OH Valley and Upper Great Lakes. Another, lower amplitude shortwave
trough is currently progressing eastward through the Lower MS
Valley, with continued eastward/east-northeastward progress
anticipated today.
Recent surface analysis places the surface low associated with the
Upper Midwest cyclone over far northwest WI, with a cold front
arcing southeastward into far northeast IL then southward to another
low over far eastern LA. A moist airmass precedes this cold front,
with mid 60s dewpoints extending through western KY and low 60s
dewpoints as far north as eastern WI. Thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of this front as it moves eastward, with the highest
thunderstorm coverage from central/eastern KY across middle/eastern
TN into northern AL and GA.
...Northern AL/Middle TN into the southern Appalachians...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the
moist and broadly confluence warm sector from MS/AL northward into
IL/OH. Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue within this
region of confluent while also developing along the front. Buoyancy
will be tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse rates, but
ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg.
Moderate vertical shear will be in place as well, with much of this
shear confined below 700 mb.
Given the moderate to strong low-level shear, this modified tropical
airmass appears supportive of a low-probability tornado risk with
thunderstorms along the cold front and within the prefrontal
confluence zone. Primary limiting factor will be the confined
updraft duration and strength resulting from poor lapse rates and
associated low buoyancy. Even with this limiting factor, a few
storms could briefly achieve the depth and duration need to produce
a brief tornado, particularly from northeast AL across northern GA
where stronger southeasterly surface wind are possible. A few
convectively aided damaging gusts could occur across the region as
well.
..Mosier/Moore.. 11/04/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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