Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms capable of hail are possible this
afternoon and evening over a small part of West Texas.
...West TX...
A shortwave trough over central NM this morning will track eastward
into west TX this afternoon. As this occurs, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop across eastern NM/west TX in a marginally
unstable air mass. Visible satellite imagery continues to show
considerable cloud cover, suggesting convection will likely be
elevated. Nevertheless, steep mid level lapse rates, cold
temperatures aloft, and strong deep layer shear will support
occasional supercell structures capable of hail - mainly in the
Lubbock vicinity. A consensus of morning CAMS and ML guidance also
agree on this limited threat. Therefore have opted for a small MRGL
risk area for this afternoon and early evening.
..Hart/Dean.. 11/14/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TWKx0B
