Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today and tonight.
...Texas...
An upper trough will develop eastward from the Southwest to southern
Plains today. As this occurs, a 500 mb jet streak around 50-60 kt
will overspread western/central and southern TX. The left exit
region of the upper jet will coincide with a weak surface low
traversing northeast NM into the TX South Plains.
South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport modest boundary
layer moisture northward across central TX toward the South Plains
(mainly 50s F dewpoints) beneath cool temperatures aloft. Given cool
thermodynamic profiles, as surface temperatures also will remain
generally cool, instability will remain weak (500 J/kg MLCAPE or
less). While vertical shear could support some organized storm
structures, a lack of great buoyancy is expected to limit overall
severe potential across TX. However, given cool temperatures aloft
and the bulk of instability occurring between 850-500 mb within
otherwise favorable shear, small hail could occur from portions of
the TX Panhandle/South Plains toward central TX from late afternoon
into tonight.
..Leitman/Chalmers.. 11/14/2026
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