Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 311630Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Downstream of weak mid-level troughing, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible through tonight across parts of the
lower MS Valley into the FL Panhandle and Peninsula as low-level
moisture gradually advances northward across these regions. Limited
overlap of sufficient instability and deep-layer shear to support
organized updrafts should preclude severe thunderstorms across these
areas.
Across the western CONUS, isolated convection appears possible
through the period across parts of central CA into the northern
Great Basin, and portions of southern/central AZ. Southwesterly
mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across both of these
regions as upper troughing amplifies over the West Coast and as a
mid/upper-level subtropical jet overspreads the Southwest. However,
weak instability and modest mid-level lapse rates will likely hinder
severe thunderstorm potential through early Sunday morning.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 10/31/2026
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