Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 311300Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.
...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing currently extends from a cyclone just off the
Pacific Northwest southward into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Extensive southwesterly flow aloft exists across much of the western
CONUS, which is situated between the aforementioned deep upper
troughing and upper ridging that extends from the Canadian Prairies
into the Southeast states. A trio of shortwave troughs is currently
moving within the broad southwesterly flow into the western
periphery of the upper ridging. Surface analysis reveals a building
warm sector downstream of these shortwaves from the southern Plains
into central Plains and Mid MO Valley.
Warm air advection within the northern portion of this warm sector
coupled with large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough
moving across KS is currently supporting showers and isolated
thunderstorms from eastern SD across southern MN and
northern/eastern IA. Isolated thunderstorms will likely continue in
this region through the morning into the early afternoon before the
elevated buoyancy becomes to weak and shallow to support lightning.
Thunderstorm coverage is generally expected to increase from south
to north from the upper TX/LA coast into the Mid-South as low-level
moisture increases ascent from the KS shortwave glances northern
portions of the region. Modest buoyancy and weak shear should keep
the severe thunderstorm potential very low.
Thunderstorms are possible from the western Great Basin into eastern
ID/western WY where strong mid-level southwesterly flow and
persistent forcing for ascent are anticipated. Limited buoyancy
should keep minimize storm depth and persistence, although any
mature updrafts could produce strong gusts and/or small hail. Severe
coverage is expected to be very low.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
south-central AZ this evening, interacting with the anomalous
moisture and modest buoyancy to support isolated thunderstorms. A
few storms could also occur across the central/southern FL Peninsula
amid the moist low to mid-level northeasterly flow.
..Mosier/Moore.. 10/31/2026
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