Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NM INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over a
small part of southeast New Mexico and Far West Texas.
...20Z Update...
Visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus and an initial
attempt at convective initiation over Far West Texas, although storm
tops and lightning activity have decreased since the initial upward
pulse. Still, the expectation is for isolated thunderstorms to
develop across portions of West Texas into far southeastern New
Mexico this afternoon into the evening. Given steep lapse rates,
moderate buoyancy, and 0-6km shear of 30-40 kts, some supercell
thunderstorm potential exists. Though storm coverage is anticipated
to remain low, recent forecast guidance and mesoanalysis data
indicate the environment may be supportive of large hail up to 2.5"
in diameter. For short term details, see MCD #2412
While minor adjustments to the Marginal Risk area have been made to
account for recent trends, the primary change is to introduce a CIG
1 area for hail to reflect the potential for very large hail.
..Halbert-K.. 10/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026/
...Southeast NM/Far West TX...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates broad cyclonic flow
over the western half of the Lower 48 states, with
west-southwesterly flow across the southern Rockies and adjacent
High Plains. A lee trough over the High Plains will yield favorable
low-level trajectories for maintaining moisture in Far West TX and
southeast NM. The 12 UTC Midland, TX observed sounding showed
moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7 deg C/km) with shear
primarily relegated in the 500 to 200 mb layer. As the boundary
layer heats and destabilizes through mid afternoon, moderate
buoyancy will likely develop and lead to isolated thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings imply a couple of supercells potentially capable
of large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) will be possible.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TW517y
