Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today over a small
part of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas.
...Southeast NM/Far West TX...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates broad cyclonic flow
over the western half of the Lower 48 states, with
west-southwesterly flow across the southern Rockies and adjacent
High Plains. A lee trough over the High Plains will yield favorable
low-level trajectories for maintaining moisture in Far West TX and
southeast NM. The 12 UTC Midland, TX observed sounding showed
moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7 deg C/km) with shear
primarily relegated in the 500 to 200 mb layer. As the boundary
layer heats and destabilizes through mid afternoon, moderate
buoyancy will likely develop and lead to isolated thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings imply a couple of supercells potentially capable
of large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) will be possible.
..Smith/Halbert.. 10/27/2026
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