Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
While a strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon across
far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, organized severe
thunderstorm potential should remain fairly low.
...Far West Texas/Southeast New Mexico...
Widespread cloudiness remains over much of the southern High Plains
as of late morning, with the primary mid-level shortwave trough over
the central Rockies expected to move northeastward across the
central/northern Plains through tonight. Another weak, low-amplitude
shortwave trough will continue to advance northeastward over the
southern High Plains this afternoon. This feature should aid
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across this region in
the 20-22Z time frame. Modest heating of moist low levels coupled
with cool temperatures aloft should support around 500-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, with the greatest instability forecast across far west
TX/southeast NM where some clearing has occurred. However, mid-level
flow and related deep-layer shear should both remain fairly modest
(generally 20-25 kt or less). While a stronger thunderstorm or two
may develop this afternoon, the overall severe hail/wind threat
still appears too limited/isolated to justify including low severe
probabilities with this update.
..Gleason/Halbert.. 10/26/2026
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