Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.
... Synopsis ...
Broad upper troughing will remain in place across the western
contiguous US today. Within this regime, a shortwave trough over the
southern and central High Plains will eject northeastward toward the
upper Mississippi Valley, accompanied by a weak surface low. A
trailing cold front will extend southwestward from this low across
the central Plains into the southern High Plains, with a lee trough
sharpening along its western flank. Farther west, an upper cyclone
will deepen as it digs southeastward across the northern Great Basin
and Intermountain West.
... Southern High Plains into the Midwest ...
Surface dewpoints in the mid 50Fs to near 60 F will remain in place
ahead of the slow-moving baroclinic zone/surface boundary today.
Diurnal heating of this modestly moist boundary layer will yield
weak destabilization from southern and eastern New Mexico and Far
West Texas northeastward into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and
southwest Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front
and lee trough during the late afternoon and evening, with
additional development probable farther northeast into the Midwest
overnight as low-level warm air advection strengthens.
Buoyancy will be somewhat greater across southern New Mexico and Far
West Texas, where a few stronger cores could produce hail or gusty
winds. Even there, modest deep-layer shear and warm/warming midlevel
temperatures in the wake of the departing midlevel trough should
limit updraft intensity and organization. Thus, severe probabilities
are currently not warranted.
... Idaho and surrounding areas ...
Cooling midlevel temperatures and large-scale ascent accompanying
the digging upper cyclone will steepen lapse rates across Idaho and
adjacent areas during the afternoon. Despite limited moisture,
sufficient buoyancy may materialize to support isolated low-topped
thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the evening. Strong flow
aloft could support locally gusty winds, and hail could accompany
stronger thunderstorm cores. The cool surface temperatures and
limited instability should limit any severe threat.
..Marsh/Thornton.. 10/26/2026
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