Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW MEXICO
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and
tonight from New Mexico into Far West Texas and the western Texas
Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as a
tornado or two are possible in these areas.
...20z Update...
Latest surface observations and objective analysis indicate that
warming surface temperatures (mid-70s F) amid low-60s F dewpoints
are supporting greater buoyancy across portions of southeastern New
Mexico/West Texas. This relatively greater buoyancy (compared to
areas farther north and west) may support a locally greater severe
risk across these regions this afternoon/evening given the
overlapping presence of effective shear of 30-40+ kts. No changes
were made to the existing outlook with this update as overall
expectations for the severe risk remain generally unchanged. See the
discussion below and MCD #2409 for additional short-term details.
..Chalmers.. 10/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026/
...NM into Far West TX...
Recent satellite imagery shows the persistent western CONUS upper
cyclone has trended towards a more open wave structure. Mesoanalysis
places two closed mid-level circulations/cold cores within this
troughing, one over northeast UT and the other over central AZ.
Expectation is for this system to further its evolution into an open
wave as it ejects northeastward across the Four Corners and into the
central Rockies. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout the eastern/southeastern periphery of this wave over NM
today.
Showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing within the warm conveyor
downstream of the cyclone across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle are
forecast to shift northeastward throughout the day. This activity is
expected to remain displaced east of the better low-level moisture
and associated buoyancy. Modest airmass destabilization is
anticipated farther west across northern/central NM where the
mid-level cold pocket interacts with the western edge of residual
low-level moisture. Hail appears likely within any of the deeper and
more persistent updrafts. However, given the limited buoyancy, this
hail is expected to remain largely sub severe with only isolated
instances of hail greater than 1" in diameter.
More destabilization is anticipated farther south (i.e. from
south-central/southeast NM into far west TX). Here, upper 50s
dewpoints will support afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg amid about
30 kt of effective vertical shear. Filtered heating will support
steeper low-level lapse rates as well. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and strong gusts as the
primary threat. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms are also possible
along a weak baroclinic zone from east-central NM into the
northwestern TX Panhandle. Buoyancy will be less here than areas
farther south, but the frontal influence coupled with slightly
stronger vertical shear could result in a supercell or two. Primary
hazard with this activity appears to be hail, but a brief tornado is
also possible.
Lastly, additional thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the
evening and overnight across far west TX (and potentially adjacent
parts of southeast NM) as low-level southeasterly flow strengthens
tonight. Moderate buoyancy and shear will persist, suggesting hail
is possible with the strongest storms.
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