Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible this
afternoon/evening across central/eastern New Mexico and Far West
Texas. An isolated damaging wind gust will also be possible across
Far West Texas.
... Southern and Eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas ...
A midlevel shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward
across the Four Corners region ahead of stronger height falls
approaching the Pacific Northwest. Although this trough should
gradually weaken, associated large-scale ascent will overspread the
northwestern periphery of a persistent low- to midlevel moist plume
extending across New Mexico. A slow-moving, northeast to
southwest-oriented baroclinic zone will provide a focus for
convective development, with differential heating and
terrain-induced vertical circulations likely contributing to
thunderstorm initiation during the afternoon.
The thermodynamic environment across the region will be somewhat
complex. Steeper midlevel lapse rates will generally reside
northwest of the surface warm sector, closer to the ejecting
shortwave trough, while the richer low-level moisture will remain
displaced farther southeast. Additionally, repeated convective
episodes over the preceding several days have acted to temper lapse
rates across portions of the warm sector. This, combined with
potentially extensive cloud cover, should limit the magnitude and
spatial extent of destabilization.
That said, surface dewpoints in the middle 50Fs to near 60F should
support pockets of MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg where sufficient
insolation occurs. This degree of buoyancy may prove sufficient for
sustained deep convection. Given forecast wind fields across the
region indicative of deep-layer shear between 35-40 knots, the
CAPE-shear parameter space will support supercells capable of large
hail, generally in the 1-1.5 inch range. Additionally, forecast
hodographs suggest enough low-level curvature to support a tornado
or two with any sustained, discrete supercell.
Despite the seemingly favorable ingredients within the large-scale
environment, the severe weather threat should remain somewhat
conditional. Questions remains surrounding both the degree and
spatial extent of instability, and subsequently the spatial overlap
of favorable thermodynamics and kinematic fields. This uncertainty
limits confidence in a more substantial severe threat. That said, a
more focused corridor or two of higher severe potential could become
apparent later today as mesoscale details and convective evolution
become better resolved.
... Oregon Coast ...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Oregon coast early on
Sunday as the cold core of an approaching midlevel trough moves into
the area. Shallow convective cells may become sufficiently deep to
produce sporadic lightning.
... Southeast Florida ...
Across southeast Florida, moist northeasterly flow along the western
periphery of a midlevel low over the Bahamas may support occasional
thunderstorms. Weak forecast vertical shear and warm mid-level
temperatures should limit any organized severe potential.
..Marsh/Thornton.. 10/25/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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