Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX...
...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas today.
...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the existing severe
probabilities as the forecast remains generally on track. See the
prior discussion below for additional details.
Elsewhere, the General Thunder area was trimmed across portions of
the northern Plains/upper Midwest in the wake of the passage of a
surface cold front and accompanying precipitation.
..Chalmers.. 10/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026/
...NM/Four Corners/Far West TX...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a cyclone centered over
the Lower CO River Valley with expansive ridging downstream from the
western Gulf through the Upper Great Lakes. A shortwave trough is
currently progressing through the southeastern periphery of the
Lower CO Valley cyclone over northwestern Mexico. General
expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward
today with some loss of amplitude as it moves within the confluent
flow between the western CONUS upper low and central/eastern CONUS
ridging.
Persistence of mostly southwesterly flow aloft will continue to
promote showers and thunderstorms from the Four Corners vicinity
across NM and into far west TX. The airmass becomes more stable with
northern extent but should remain buoyant enough to support
continued thunderstorms. More widespread cloud cover is anticipated
across northern portions of the region, but filtered daytime heating
may result in greater destabilization and attendant risk of a few
strong/severe storms capable of hail.
Greater buoyancy is expected farther south, where dewpoints will
likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s amid afternoon highs in the
mid/upper 70s. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear will
persist across area as well, supporting the potential for
supercells. Additionally, a more southeasterly component to the
low-level flow is possible from south-central/southeast NM into far
west TX, which could support slower storm motions and a relatively
greater potential for hail and tornadoes. Some very large hail
greater than 2" in diameter is also more possible here. This region
should also experience greater large-scale ascent as the shortwave
trough moves through during the late afternoon/early evening. This
greater ascent could result in a more linear mode and the potential
for a few bowing segments. Overall, there appears to be a relatively
greater severe potential from south-central NM into southeast NM and
far west TX compared to areas farther north and west.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TW34tn
