Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Southwest...
Beneath a belt of 30-40-kt southwesterly flow aloft, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the
higher terrain across parts of southeastern AZ into western NM this
afternoon. Diurnal heating amid middle/upper 50s dewpoints will
yield weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with around 35 kt
of effective shear, may promote transient storm organization. While
an isolated instance of marginally severe hail (around 1 inch in
diameter) and/or locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the
overall severe threat is expected to remain isolated/limited today.
An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected late in the period
across central/northern AZ as forcing for ascent strengthens within
the exit region of a robust midlevel jet. While deep-layer shear
will be increasing, most of this activity should remain elevated
amid weak buoyancy -- limiting the overall severe risk.
..Weinman.. 10/20/2026
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