Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.
...Great Basin into the Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms ongoing this morning across parts
of southern/central NM may develop downstream today over portions of
the southern/central Plains as modest southwesterly mid-level flow
persists. As a closed mid/upper-level low digs southward off the
West Coast, convection capable of producing occasional lightning is
also forecast to develop this afternoon through tonight across parts
of the Great Basin and Southwest. Low-level moisture is forecast to
further increase through the period over the lower CO River Valley
and southern/central AZ.
While a stronger thunderstorm or two may develop across southeast AZ
this afternoon with daytime heating aided by orographic effects,
better large-scale ascent associated with a strong southwesterly
mid/upper-level jet will likely be delayed until late tonight/early
Wednesday morning. Greater coverage of thunderstorms may be realized
towards the end of the period across central/northern AZ, but in a
weak thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail/wind threat
across the Southwest currently appears lower and even more isolated
than yesterday, so have not introduced any severe probabilities with
this update.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/20/2026
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