Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a
tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be
possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.
...Mid-Atlantic...
The remnants of Isaias will move through the southern Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a moist airmass will advect
northeastward across North Carolina and eastern Virginia, where
dewpoints will increase into the 70s F. MLCAPE is forecast to peak
in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Carolina
Piedmont this morning and move northeastward into the lower
elevations of eastern North Carolina and south-central Virginia
early this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from near Raleigh
northward to west of Richmond around midday have long curved
hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 225
m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that
remain discrete. The tornado threat should persist into the evening
as the stronger storms move toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.
...Desert Southwest/Four Corners...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward today from the
Desert Southwest into the Four Corners region. At the surface, an
axis of low-level moisture will be in place from southwestern
Arizona extending northeastward toward the Four Corners. Weak
instability will develop along this southwest-to-northeast corridor
as surface temperature warm. Large-scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Forecast soundings from western Arizona into
southeast Utah this afternoon have strong unidirectional winds from
the south-southwest in the low to mid-levels. The resultant strong
deep-layer shear could support a marginal wind-damage threat.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/11/2026
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