Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with an isolated tornado threat will be
possible this evening across parts of the Carolinas. A few severe
wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest.
...Carolinas...
The remnants of Isaias will continue to move northward across the
Tennessee Valley this evening. In the eastern part of the system,
scattered convection with little lightning activity is currently
ongoing from eastern Georgia northward into the western Carolinas.
This convection is located along and near the axis of a low-level
jet. Surface analysis has dewpoints over much of eastern Georgia and
southern South Carolina in the 70s F. Within this moist airmass, the
RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, the
latest WSR-88D VWP at Columbia, South Carolina has a looped
hodograph with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This
strong low-level shear will support a tornado threat this evening
into the overnight with rotating cells that remain semi-discrete,
mainly across the eastern half of South Carolina into southern North
Carolina.
...Desert Southwest...
Tropical Storm Rachel, in conjunction with a mid-level shortwave
trough, will move toward the northern part of Baja California this
evening. Ahead of the system, moisture advection will continue
across parts of the Desert Southwest. Over southwestern Arizona,
surface dewpoints will continue to increase into the mid to upper
60s F, aiding destabilization this evening with MLCAPE increasing to
around 1000 J/kg. In addition, large-scale ascent will increase as
the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the region. In
response to the lift, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop
and move northeastward across southern and western Arizona this
evening. The mid-level jet will also create moderate to strong
deep-layer shear sufficient for isolated severe storms. A few severe
wind gusts will be possible.
..Broyles.. 10/11/2026
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