Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible
today from eastern Georgia into western/southern South Carolina. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert
Southwest.
...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas...
Isaias underwent a rapid transition to a post-tropical cyclone after
landfall Friday evening, with a notable baroclinic zone now in place
throughout its eastern periphery. The low-level center of this
system is currently over southeast AL, with a warm front extending
east-northeastward from this center across central GA, central SC,
and eastern NC. General expectation is for this former tropical
cyclone to spend the first half of the period completing its
transition to a mid-latitude cyclone over MS/AL before then
progressing northeastward across the TN Valley later tonight. The
surface low is expected to drift northeastward as the system
matures, centering over northern AL by 00Z. As it does, its warm
sector, which is characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints, will
expand northwestward into more of GA and the Carolinas. This
increase in low-level moisture will support moderate buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) despite widespread cloudiness and limited
heating. Low-level confluence within the warm sector, augmented by
modest but persistent large-scale ascent, is expected to support
thunderstorm development throughout the period, particularly during
the afternoon.
The stronger low to mid-level flow will be displaced west of the
greater low-level moisture and associated buoyancy. Even so,
southeasterly low-level flow veering to southerly in the mid/upper
levels will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for
occasional organization/intensification of the predominantly
multicellular structures. Several brief tornadoes could result
within any of these more organized storms. Convectively augmented
damaging wind gusts are possible as well. Greatest severe potential
is expected along the GA/SC border vicinity between 21Z and 00Z.
...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Complex synoptic evolution is anticipated over the eastern Pacific
Ocean, just upstream of southern CA and the Baja Peninsula, as
Tropical Storm Rachel interacts with a compact mid-latitude cyclone.
The interaction will increase the northeastward motion of the
tropical cyclone, while also resulting an expanded low to mid-level
wind field. Additionally, this evolution will favor advection of
notable low-level moisture into the Lower CO River Valley and
adjacent southern/central AZ. Overall thunderstorm coverage is
expected to increase throughout the day into tonight. Deep-layer
vertical shear will be stronger enough for supercells, a few of
which could produce strong wind gusts. Additionally, surface low
associated with the tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the
Lower CO River Valley region after 06Z. Increase low-level winds and
moisture will support a low-probability tornado threat.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/10/2026
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